本周天津方管市場(chǎng)小幅震蕩偏弱運(yùn)行。受上周末唐山鋼坯價(jià)格上漲以及周初開市期螺震蕩上漲影響，周初開市，天津方管市場(chǎng)價(jià)格跟隨小幅上調(diào)。隨后幾 日，天津方管市場(chǎng)到貨增加，期螺震蕩下行，終端采購(gòu)猶豫，日采購(gòu)量縮減，不過(guò)好在環(huán)保限產(chǎn)支撐，市場(chǎng)低價(jià)成交尚可，高位成交困難，天津方管市場(chǎng)價(jià)格小幅震 蕩偏弱。限產(chǎn)利好雖有支撐，但效應(yīng)有限，庫(kù)存累計(jì)超預(yù)期，市場(chǎng)看漲心態(tài)承壓。7月20日，唐山市政府發(fā)布《關(guān)于7月下旬全市大氣污染防治加嚴(yán)管控措施的通 知》，據(jù)蘭格鋼鐵研究中心跟蹤監(jiān)測(cè)，相較于此前的停限產(chǎn)要求，新文件的停限產(chǎn)企業(yè)和設(shè)備數(shù)量比例均再度提高，政策力度加大。另一方面，政策也在排查、督導(dǎo) 等多方面加強(qiáng)管控，強(qiáng)調(diào)問責(zé)并加大處罰和曝光。而6月25日，多省工業(yè)和信息化部、發(fā)展改革、生態(tài)環(huán)境主管部門又聯(lián)合發(fā)文，為貫徹落實(shí)《國(guó)務(wù)院關(guān)于印發(fā)打 贏藍(lán)天保衛(wèi)戰(zhàn)三年行動(dòng)計(jì)劃的通知》，加快推動(dòng)重點(diǎn)區(qū)域改善環(huán)境空氣質(zhì)量，打贏藍(lán)天保衛(wèi)戰(zhàn)，對(duì)京津冀及周邊地區(qū)要嚴(yán)禁新增鑄造產(chǎn)能。雖然這些限產(chǎn)消息對(duì)后市 產(chǎn)量有明顯影響，對(duì)目前的市場(chǎng)價(jià)格有一定支撐，但效果并不明顯，主要還是因?yàn)槟壳暗男枨蟪掷m(xù)走弱以及市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存壓力比較大有關(guān)系，首先是需求方面，隨著高溫 天氣以及近幾日價(jià)格的小幅回調(diào)，終端觀望態(tài)度增強(qiáng)，工地日采購(gòu)量壓縮，市場(chǎng)成交有所減弱。而市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存方面，本周市場(chǎng)到貨增加，據(jù)蘭格鋼鐵網(wǎng)26日統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù) 顯示，天津方管市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存總量為20.13萬(wàn)噸，比上周增加1.51萬(wàn)噸。庫(kù)存累計(jì)超市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，商家對(duì)后期可能面臨的庫(kù)存壓力比較擔(dān)憂。

This week, the Tianjin Square Management Market was running weakly due to minor shocks. Affected by the rising price of Tangshan billet last weekend and the concussion in the opening period at the beginning of the week, the price of Tianjin square pipe market increased slightly at the beginning of the week. In the following days, Tianjin Square Management Market increased the arrival of goods, the concussion downward, terminal purchasing hesitated, daily purchasing volume reduced, but fortunately in the support of environmental protection and production restriction, low-price market transactions are still acceptable, high-level transactions are difficult, Tianjin Square Management market price fluctuation is weak. Limited production profit has support, but the effect is limited, inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, the market bullish mentality pressure. On July 20, the Tangshan Municipal Government issued the Notice on Stricter Control Measures for Air Pollution Prevention and Control in the City in the Late July. According to the follow-up monitoring by Langer Iron and Steel Research Center, compared with the previous stop-and-stop requirements, the number of enterprises and equipment in the new document has increased again, and the policy has been strengthened. On the other hand, the policy also strengthens control in investigation, supervision and other aspects, emphasizing accountability and increasing punishment and exposure. On June 25, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Development and Reform, and the competent departments of ecological environment jointly issued a joint paper to implement the Circular of the State Council on the Issue of the Three-Year Action Plan for Winning the Blue Sky Defense War, and to accelerate the promotion of improving environmental air quality in key areas and winning the Blue Sky Defense War, and to fight against Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas. It is strictly forbidden to increase casting capacity. Although these restrictions have a significant impact on future production and support the current market price, the effect is not obvious. The main reason is that the current demand continues to weaken and the market inventory pressure is relatively large. First, the demand side, with the high temperature weather and the price of recent days a small rebound, finally. End-to-end wait-and-see attitude has been strengthened, daily purchasing volume of construction sites has been reduced, and market turnover has been weakened. In terms of market inventory, market arrivals increased this week. According to statistics from Langer Iron and Steel Network on the 26th, Tianjin Square Management Market has a total inventory of 213,000 tons, an increase of 151,000 tons over last week. Storage accumulated supermarket market expectations, the merchants may be faced with later inventory pressure is more worried. 綜合來(lái)看，本周天津方管市場(chǎng)多空力量仍較激烈，商家操作仍左右為難。雖有環(huán)保利好，但礙于目前的庫(kù)存以及市場(chǎng)成交弱等壓力仍不能保持太樂觀。對(duì)于 后市，筆者認(rèn)為8月份仍可期，雖然庫(kù)存壓力短期內(nèi)仍將加大，但從消息面上仍將出現(xiàn)利好，首先建國(guó)70周年大慶在即，環(huán)保限產(chǎn)勢(shì)必不會(huì)放松，甚至?xí)^續(xù)加 強(qiáng)。再有7月底的中美貿(mào)易磋商仍是利好的可能性大。因此，預(yù)計(jì)下周天津方管市場(chǎng)將小幅震蕩上行。

Overall, this week, Tianjin's market management is still more intense, business operations are still in a dilemma. Despite the environmental benefits, we can not remain too optimistic due to the current inventory and weak market turnover pressure. For the future market, I think August is still expected, although the inventory pressure will increase in the short term, but there will still be good news. First of all, the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China is approaching, the environmental production restriction will not relax, or even continue to strengthen. The Sino-US trade negotiations at the end of July are still likely to be positive. Therefore, it is expected that the Tianjin Square Management Market will rise slightly next week.

價(jià)格方面，截至7月26日午間，天津市場(chǎng)上河北鋼鐵集團(tuán)產(chǎn)HPB300Φ6.5-10mm高線價(jià)格為4770-4910 元，比上周價(jià)格漲10元；河北鋼鐵集團(tuán)產(chǎn)Φ18-25mm三級(jí)抗震螺紋鋼價(jià)格為3920-3950元，比上周價(jià)格跌30-40元；三級(jí)抗震盤螺價(jià)格為 4300-4340元，與上周價(jià)格基本持平。

In terms of price, as of noon on July 26, the price of HPB300 6.5-10mm high-speed line produced by Hebei Iron and Steel Group in Tianjin market was 4770-4910 yuan, 10 yuan higher than last week's price; the price of grade 18-25mm three-stage anti-seismic thread steel produced by Hebei Iron and Steel Group was 3920-3950 yuan, 30-40 yuan lower than last week's price; and the price of grade III anti-seismic plate screw was 4300-4340 yuan, with the same price as last week's. Prices were basically flat last week.